Donald Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years thanks in part to increasing support among voters of color, particularly Latinos. Trump’s gains mostly occurred among Christian voters of color. This pattern suggests that the ideology of Christian nationalism now permeating the Republican Party is moving beyond its traditional enclave of White conservative Christians. A multiracial coalition based on theocratic supremacy is a clear and present danger to a multicultural pluralistic democratic society. 

A Tale of Two Multiracial Coalitions 

In the November election, Trump kept his stronghold among White evangelical Christians, earning 82% of their votes, a six-point increase compared to 2020. Trump also gained seven points among White Catholic voters in 2024 compared to 2020 (63%–56%). 

However, Trump also gained among Christians of color. The Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) post-election American Values Survey shows that 16% of Black Protestants, 43% of Latino Catholics, and nearly two-thirds of Latino Protestants (64%) supported his bid to return to the White House. Black Protestant support for Trump nearly doubled compared to 2020. Latino Protestants have also shifted rightward during the Trump era, and 2024 marks their highest share of the Republican vote. Most striking is the swing among Latino Catholics, who historically have been a strong Democratic-leaning constituency.  

Harris did well with non-Christian cohorts but made significant gains only among nonreligious voters, which are a historically Democratic-leaning constituency despite some decline in support in the post-Obama era. More than seven of ten in this cohort voted for Harris, in line with their support for democratic candidates in the first decade of the 21st century and early 2010s. Nonreligious Americans are a very diverse cohort that reflects the racial demographics of the country at large. The nonreligious is also the only cohort of White voters to lean Democratic in their voting patterns. 

The results of the PRRI survey suggest that polarization in America is no longer solely based on race but also on religion. American Christians, regardless of race, are embracing Christian nationalism. This ideology centers around Christians being the true citizens of the United States and those who are not should be excluded from the political body. 

The Changing Racial Dynamics of Christian Nationalism 

Historically, Christian nationalism has mostly been a White phenomenon. As PRRI has found, people who adhere to the tenets of Christian nationalism, and those who are sympathetic to it, are overwhelmingly White and evangelical. However, people of color who identify as evangelical also hold high levels of sympathy for Christian nationalist beliefs. The tenets of Christian nationalism include: 

• Declaring the US a Christian nation;  

• Making laws based on Christian values; 

• Having Christians exercise dominion over other believers and nonbelievers; 

• Believing that if the US moved away from its Christian foundation, we would not have a country anymore; and 

• Believing that being Christian is an important part of being truly American. 

White Christian voters have been the core constituency of the Republican Party for decades; two-thirds (67%) of Republican identifiers are White Christians. White evangelical Protestants account for three in ten adults who identify as Republican, and the vast majority of them (65%) sympathize with Christian nationalism. A majority of Latino Protestants (57%) and a plurality of Black Protestants (44%) sympathize with the ideology, and most Latino and Black Protestant Christians are born-again or evangelical in their theology. 

Despite a mostly White Christian base, the Republican Party under Trump has fared better among voters of color, especially with Latino voters. Trump’s boost in Latino support has mostly come from Protestant Christians. 

Secularization and Reaction 

The desire for a dominant multiracial Christian government may be viewed as a reaction to the increasing secularization of the country. The secular cohort—the population who identify as atheist, agnostic, or who have no religion in particular—has been growing for the last two decades. Their racial and gender demographics reflect the US population as a whole. However, various demographic cohorts are overrepresented. Young people under the age of 30 tend to be less religious, partly because they are more likely to leave religion but also because newer generations are more likely to grow up nonreligious as their parents were either nonreligious or did not raise their children with a religious identity. 

Despite lacking the infrastructure of right-wing institutions fueling Christian nationalism, secular voters form what I call an “organic bloc.” They are animated by various issues like the environment and climate change and are, on average, more progressive on racial, gender, and economic matters. This group has backed Democratic Party candidates by margins of two to one or larger since the late 1980s. In 2024, it was the only major cohort to increase its support for Harris compared to Biden in 2020. 

The racial dynamics of secular voters are the opposite of Christians. In recent history, public opinion research has shown that White Christians and Christians of color, particularly Black Christians, have been on opposite sides of the political spectrum, with Latino Protestants veering right. White secular voters vote for Democrats at similar rates to secular voters of color, and it is the only major cohort of White voters to support Democratic Party candidates. 

In the case of Latinos, rising secularism has been mostly the result of Catholics who stop identifying as such. Secular Latinos tend to be the most liberal of Latino voters. This prompts the question of whether the shift of Latino Catholics toward Trump is the result of the cohort becoming more conservative because the increase in secularism has depleted their more liberal ranks. 

These racial and religious trends raise some critical questions. Will Latino Catholics continue their trend toward the GOP if the full extent of the promised mass deportations become a reality? Will secularism decline if the Trump government starts to promote Christianity explicitly, or will it grow as a rejection of government-imposed religion? In an environment where people of color become not just de facto but de jure second-class citizens, will Christians of color continue their support for Christian nationalist ideology? The future of American Democracy, and the possibility of a pluralistic and multiracial society, may well hinge on Americans of all races and religions rejecting the Christian nationalist agenda and committing to a pluralistic democratic society. 

Juhem Navarro-Rivera is a political scientist, writer, public speaker, and research consultant. He is the political research director and managing partner at Socioanalitica Research LLC. He writes the newsletter Secular Politics.

From Many, We is a Charles F. Kettering Foundation blog series that highlights the insights of thought leaders dedicated to the idea of inclusive democracy. Queries may be directed to fmw@kettering.org.